What bypolls in 4 constituencies in Punjab mean for AAP, Congress, SAD and BJP

Barely four months after they slugged it out in the parliamentary polls, political parties in Punjab are set for a fresh faceoff in the November 13 byelections to four assembly constituencies in the state. These seats – Dera Baba Nanak, Gidderbaha, Barnala and Chabbewal (SC) – fell vacant after the sitting MLAs got elected to Lok Sabha or jumped ship. HT reporters look at the significance the upcoming byelections hold for the AAP, Congress, SAD, and BJP:
Critical mid-term test for Mann
Amid growing rumblings within the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab, chief minister Bhagwant Mann faces a critical mid-term test in the upcoming byelections for four assembly constituencies in the state next month. The AAP, which secured a historic mandate in the 2022 state polls, suffered a setback in the Lok Sabha elections in April-May 2024, bagging just three of the 13 seats, despite the chief minister’s lofty claims of a “clean sweep.” The November 13 bypolls present the AAP a chance to reassert its dominance in the state and for Mann to regain the confidence of the party high command, which has made a flurry of changes in the top echelons of the state government, including the chief minister’s office, after the underwhelming performance in parliamentary polls. Both Mann and the party have their work cut out for the electoral battle, as three of the four seats – Dera Baba Nanak, Gidderbaha, and Chabbewal – were won by the Congress in 2022, while the fourth, Barnala, was held by AAP. A strong showing in these byelections would be a big boost for the party and the chief minister.
Prestige at stake for Cong
The upcoming bypolls in the four assembly constituencies have once again put the Congress’ prestige at stake in the state.
Except Barnala, the three other constituencies were won by the Congress in the 2022 election, thus it is facing a Herculean task to hold its fort in these constituencies.
Gidderbaha fell vacant after PPCC chief Amarinder Singh Raja Warring was elected an MP from Ludhiana, while election in Dera Baba Nanak necessitated as sitting MLA Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa was elected as an MP from Gurdaspur. The Chabbewal seat fell vacant as Dr Raj Kumar Chabbewal switched to the ruling AAP and was later elected as an MP from Hoshiarpur.
Rattled by factionalism and loss of share of Dalits and Hindu votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Congress faced a massive drubbing the Jalandhar west bypoll.
A lot is at stake for Raja Warring as he has not only to defend his fort Gidderbaha but also to fight elections in the other four constituencies. A loss in the bypolls will put his position under threat. While Gidderbaha and Dera Baba Nanak are strong holds for the party, it has no candidate at Barnala and no strong candidate at Chabbewal. Besides, the ruling party has always an edge in the bypolls, which is affirmed by the Jalandhar west polls, where Congress led in the Lok Sabha but lost badly in the bypoll held after two months of the Lok Sabha results.
SAD sees an opportunity to bounce back
Facing a serious religio-political crisis, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which in the 2022 state polls shrunk to three seats in the state assembly with 117 MLAs and lost deposits of 10 seats in the parliament polls in June, sees an opportunity to bounce back. Out of SAD’s three members, MLA from Banga Dr Sukhwinder Sukhi had joined the Aam Aadmi party (AAP) but had not tendered resignation. SAD president Sukhbir Badal even after being pronounced “tankhaiya” (guilty of religious misconduct) is seen meeting the public and staged protests last week at Gidderbaha and Muktsar against alleged malpractices in the run up to the panchayat polls and announced that he would stand with the locals making it clear that the party would put up a fight. According to a party insider, the party is keen to contest Barnala, Gidderbaha and Dera Baba Nanak seats and will shortly announce the candidates.
Saffron party looking for hope amid challenges
For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the bypolls are of immense importance keeping in mind the momentum that the party has got in the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls by getting over 18% of votes.
However, the bypolls are going to be a huge challenge for the BJP as the party is going to the polls when the state party chief, Sunil Jakhar has decided not to attend a party meeting on certain issues. In the absence of Jakhar, the party is in complete disarray. Among the four seats going to the bypolls, none has remained with the BJP ever and are traditionally non-BJP stronghold. However, the party is hoping for some surprises, especially in Gidderbaha and Barnala where former finance minister Manpreet Badal and former MLA Kewal Dhillon are the likely candidates for the seats from the saffron party.